The language of uncertainty – after 30 years

Most of our knowledge – regardless of the area – is less than 100 per cent certain. This is also the case in a number of scientific domains, including climate science, forecasting, political science, medicine, law, and psychology. Experts and lay people use a large number of words and phrases (a chance, possible, almost certain, a risk, unlikely, very likely, perhaps) to convey degrees and types of probabilistic knowledge. In his lecture, Professor Karl Halvor Teigen will present his over 30-year personal journey through this field, which began with the first suggestion to a student that she should have tried to figure out the probabilistic meaning inherent in such phrases. Then they both were hooked.

For many years, they have challenged the “Translation approach” in research of judgement and decision making (JDM) for thinking that the main message of phrases like ‘very likely’ was to convey a degree of belief corresponding to probability values between 0 and 1. Instead, they argued that probabilistic phrases have a communicative function by being directional, pointing either toward the occurrence of a target event (it is likely) or towards its non-occurrence (it is not certain). More recently they have investigated why such phrases, including auxiliary verbs like ‘can’ and ‘will’ are chosen, what kind of uncertainties they are supposed to characterize, as well as the kind of outcomes they address in a communicative setting (“The which outcome approach”). It is also a story of how to be haunted by a research topic and the role of Ph.D. students in keeping it alive.

“The Challenges of Humanities of the 21st Century” is a series of lectures by distinguished specialists, who represent various disciplines from the field of humanities. The events are aimed at students of SWPS University's Interdisciplinary Doctoral Program, however all interested parties are welcome. The format includes post-lecture informal discussions on topics presented by the invited experts. The friendly atmosphere of the events is conducive to networking, which lends itself to opportunities of future internships at universities or research centers around the world.

Doctoral Studies at SWPS University are directed to people interested in an academic career and also to those, who would like to continue their education and personal development in support of their career advancement. The interdisciplinary character of our programs allows students to participate in projects from various disciplines. Our doctoral students collaborate with scholars from the best research centers in Poland and around the world. The master-apprentice approach guarantees that each student receives individual attention and professional support.