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If you have ever read your horoscope in a daily newspaper, you might have noticed that the predictions are broad enough and vague enough in order to ring true for any situation and any person. You might say that horoscope writers use wide intervals “to predict” the future. Dr. Erik Løhre from the Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences will explain how using intervals influences human perception of uncertain events.

The lecture, organized by SWPS University's Interdisciplinary Doctoral Program, is a part of the series The Challenges of the Humanities of the 21st Century.

The lecture will be conducted in English. Free admission.

May 22
16:00
Wrocław

Using intervals to communicate uncertainty

Given the inherent uncertainty of the future, how can we make predictions of future outcomes with high confidence? One solution to this problem is to issue predictions related to specific intervals, and to simply make our interval forecasts wider to achieve a higher degree of certainty. For instance, if I wanted to predict the temperature change by the year 2100, with close to 100% certainty, I could simply state that it will increase by 0.1 to 10 degrees Celsius. However, intervals are inherently ambiguous: while a wide interval prediction logically can be issued with higher confidence than a narrow interval prediction, the wide interval indicates that it is more uncertain what the exact outcome will be.

In this talk, I present evidence that people have two opposing views on intervals: some people will find a wide interval to be more certain, since it is more likely to include the truth, while others will consider a wide interval to be less certain, since it expresses less confidence about expected outcomes. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that people find it more intuitive to associate wide intervals with uncertainty, with clear implications for the communication of uncertainty.

erik lohre

Speaker

Dr. Erik Løhre – holds Ph.D. from University of Oslo. Postdoctoral fellow at Simula Research Laboratory. He also works at Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences. His research interests include uncertainty, communication, predictions and judgments.

The field of research related to uncertainty, communication, predictions and judgments is fascinating. We are glad to host Dr. Erik Løhre at SWPS University and to learn how different intervals influence human perception of uncertain events.

Izabela Grabowska, Associate Professor, Director of Interdisciplinary Doctoral Program

The Challenges of the Humanities of the 21st Century

“The Challenges of Humanities of the 21st Century” is a series of lectures by distinguished specialists, who represent various disciplines from the field of humanities. The events are aimed at students of SWPS University's Interdisciplinary Doctoral Program, however all interested parties are welcome. The format includes post-lecture informal discussions on topics presented by the invited experts. The friendly atmosphere of the events is conducive to networking, which lends itself to opportunities of future internships at universities or research centers around the world.

Doctoral Studies at SWPS University

Doctoral Studies at SWPS University are directed to people interested in an academic career and also to those, who would like to continue their education and personal development in support of their career advancement. The interdisciplinary character of our programs allows students to participate in projects from various disciplines. Our doctoral students collaborate with scholars from the best research centers in Poland and around the world. The master-apprentice approach guarantees that each student receives individual attention and professional support.

Date and Location

May 22, 2018 at 16.00, room 120
Ostrowskiego 30b, 53-238 Wrocław, Poland, room 120

Organizer

SWPS University's Interdisciplinary Doctoral Studies Program

 
 
 

 

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